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Stryktipset Kalman AI Analytics

Mathematical 13-match coupon optimization, expected value (EV) calculations, Poisson-Kalman matrix filtering, and dynamic distribution modeling.

Beta / Test Mode: The predictive analytics pipeline runs in an automated test environment and updates continuously.
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Kalman Filter Active Repo Synced: Live

13-Match Coupon Engine

Optimized reduced systems generated via Monte Carlo simulations and entropy-based value detection.

Pipeline Status: Operational
Current Round: Round 12 (Saturday) • Generated Rows: 288 Rows

Financial Metrics & ROI Curve

Realized returns, payout history, and total bankroll performance across historical weeks.

Mode: R288 System
Net Profit +14,820 SEK Cumulative Total
Return on Inv. (ROI) +134.2% Per turnover ratio
13-Correct Hits 2 Rounds Jackpot Tier Hit
Hit Rate (10-12 Correct) 78.5% Payout frequency
Live Prediction Stryktipset 13 Matches

Current Round: Kalman Probabilities

Comparing AI Model Probability vs Swedish Public Distribution (SVS)
# Match Kalman Prob (1-X-2) SVS Distribution Value Edge Rec. Mark
1 Arsenal - Chelsea 54% - 26% - 20% 62% - 22% - 16% X2 Value 1 X
2 Aston Villa - Newcastle 38% - 29% - 33% 48% - 28% - 24% +9% Edge (2) 1 X 2
3 Brighton - Everton 61% - 23% - 16% 59% - 25% - 16% Fair Line 1
4 Crystal Palace - Fulham 42% - 31% - 27% 50% - 26% - 24% +5% Edge (X) 1 X
5 Tottenham - Brentford 58% - 24% - 18% 68% - 20% - 12% +6% Edge (2) 1 2
*Showing top matches. Complete 13-match coupon loaded dynamically from JSON backend.

Mathematical & System Architecture

Four core algorithms power the predictive pipeline to filter market noise and isolate true expected value.

1. Kalman Matrix Filter

Recursively updates team offensive and defensive latent parameters using xG, goal differentials, and shot metrics while accounting for process noise.

2. Monte Carlo Coupon Sampler

Simulates 100,000 full coupon outcomes to evaluate pool prize distribution dynamics and construct reduced mathematical guarantees (e.g. R288).

3. Shannon Entropy Optimization

Measures public over-betting bias against true mathematical probabilities to maximize sole-winner jackpot probability.

4. Fractional Kelly Sizing

Dynamically scales weekly system cost based on calculated pool EV, protecting bankroll against long-tail variance.

Historical Backfill & Performance Log

Verified results per weekly round calculated against official Svenska Spel outcomes.

Round Date Correct (Hits) Cost Payout Net Return
Round 11 2026-03-21 12 Correct 288 SEK 1,420 SEK +1,132 SEK
Round 10 2026-03-14 11 Correct 288 SEK 180 SEK -108 SEK
Round 9 2026-03-07 13 Correct 288 SEK 12,650 SEK +12,362 SEK